• As we approach the 2025 presidential inauguration, the future of U.S. immigration policy is at a crossroads. With President Biden out of the race, the upcoming election promises significant shifts in direction, regardless of which candidate takes office. Here’s a breakdown of the current immigration situation, the likely policy outcomes under different leadership scenarios, and the critical challenges facing the immigration system today.

The Presidential Race: What We Know

• Kamala Harris has signaled that she intends to chart her own path rather than merely continuing the policies of the Biden administration. While Harris is expected to support humanitarian programs, such as Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), and prioritize STEM degree holders, there is uncertainty about how she will handle employment-based immigration programs like H-1B visas and PERM labor certifications.

• Donald Trump, on the other hand, has vowed to return to his 2016–2020 agenda, promising to double down on measures like “Buy American, Hire American” (BAHA), which resulted in a sharp increase in Requests for Evidence (RFEs) and denials for employment-based immigration petitions. Trump is also likely to push for stricter immigration enforcement, including the rollback of DACA and other humanitarian protections, a resurgence of travel bans, and mass deportation efforts.
Current Immigration Data

The current state of immigration shows a system under strain:

  • 1.35 million individuals are currently on Temporary Protected Status (TPS).
  • 1.6 million asylum claims are pending, split evenly between affirmative claims (filed outside of court) and defensive claims (filed during removal proceedings).
  • For Fiscal Year 2025, there will be:
    • 226,000 family-based immigrant visa numbers available.
    • 140,000 employment-based immigrant visa numbers available.
  • The H-1B visa cap remains at 65,000 for the regular track and 20,000 for master’s degree holders.
  • PERM labor certification processing—a critical step for many employment-based immigrants—now takes more than two years to complete from start to finish.
  • On the brighter side, over 80% of National Interest Waiver (NIW) I-140 petitions are being approved, though wait times remain long due to backlogs in the Visa Bulletin.

Potential Policies in 2025
Under Kamala Harris:

  • Continued support for DACA and STEM graduates is expected, but there may be a push to tighten H-1B and PERM adjudications, especially with increasing scrutiny on U.S. labor impacts.
  • Service center processing would remain a priority, with a minimized role for local field offices.
  • However, questions remain about whether Harris will take a more labor-friendly approach, possibly increasing I-9 audits or limiting employment visa approvals.

Under Donald Trump:

  • Expect a resurgence of BAHA, which could lead to an increase in RFEs, denials, and stricter interpretations of employment-based immigration laws.
  • A rollback of humanitarian programs and aggressive deportation efforts will likely return, along with travel bans targeting specific countries.
  • In-person adjustment of status (AOS) interviews would become mandatory, with heightened enforcement on I-9 compliance and worksite inspections, particularly targeting remote workers.

The Gravity of Immigration Policy

It’s important to remember that while the president can issue executive orders and direct policy changes, only Congress has the power to amend immigration law. This creates a reality where executive actions may have immediate effects, but longer-term changes require legislative reform—a difficult task given the current political landscape.

For example, despite H-1B visa reforms, the annual cap remains fixed, making it harder each year to secure one of these coveted visa numbers. Some individuals are even pursuing second or third master’s degrees to take advantage of Day 1 Curricular Practical Training (CPT) programs to work while awaiting a visa.

Moreover, while I-140 approvals for employment-based green cards are common, they do little to mitigate the long wait times in the Visa Bulletin, especially for applicants from countries like India and China, where the demand far exceeds the supply of visas.

Humanitarian Challenges and Questions for the Future

Humanitarian programs, such as TPS and asylum, pose another significant challenge. With millions of people in the system, the question remains: What happens in the next 4, 8, or 12 years? Can the U.S. feasibly deport large numbers of people without overwhelming the system or causing humanitarian crises? Or is there a need for a humane, long-term path to lawful permanent residence?
The next few years will be critical in determining the future of U.S. immigration, and much depends on who takes office in 2025. Whether it’s a continuation of current policies under Harris or a return to stricter enforcement under Trump, immigrants and their advocates must stay informed and prepared for the challenges ahead.

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